From the Earth to the Moon: Economic Viability of Commercial Spaceports & Science and Technology Planning for MIT Lunar Exploration

Abstract

Despite an overcapacity of launch sites in comparison to demand, there are 11 existing commercial spaceports in the United States and at least another six under consideration. While a spaceport can bring economic growth and STEM development to a region, it requires significant and sustained investments of public funding in an uncertain and volatile market. This thesis conducts a two-case study of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) in Virginia and Spaceport America (SA) in New Mexico, incorporating four analysis methods: financial, business case, economic impact, and profitability. A cross-case analysis studies both cases and reveals lessons learned and recommendations for other commercial spaceports. This research employs a multidisciplinary approach, incorporating policy, economic and business analysis to help policymakers, regulators and the general public understand the operations and impact of commercial spaceports that will enhance stakeholders’ decision-making about proposed spaceports. Ultimately, an improved understanding of commercial spaceports will allow this network of infrastructure to support continued innovation and growth in the commercial space sector.

As the commercial space sector continues to expand through efforts like the first civilian trip to the International Space Station, commercial spaceports will become critical infrastructure to future commercial missions to the Moon. With the renewed global interest in exploring the lunar surface, there is a shift from the Apollo program in that NASA aims to establish a significant number of commercial partnerships.

As countries and companies around the world aim to return to the Moon, including the U.S. through NASA’s Artemis Program, MIT has an opportunity to leverage its knowledge and resources to be part of the next phase of Moon missions. MIT has significant experience in lunar science and exploration, from the early days of the Apollo Program to more recent missions like GRAIL (2011) and collaborations with Israel’s Beresheet mission (2019). MIT is well poised to leverage both its lunar experience and its science and technology expertise to assist in returning humans to the Moon. This thesis presents an analysis of MIT’s unique areas of expertise and its alignment with prominent science and technology goals in order to develop a strategic plan to bring together the entire MIT community to achieve them. Through the use of MIT’s Lunar Open Architecture and extensive data collection, the author has developed a science traceability matrix and a technology multi-domain matrix that are the first step toward charting the future of MIT lunar exploration. This strategic planning exercise revealed many areas of mutual interest among research groups at MIT as well as a broad interest in creating a cohesive, organized strategy for MIT’s next steps on the lunar surface. This work will help the MIT community optimize its efforts toward lunar exploration, maximize investments into lunar research, and develop a cohesive plan for MIT’s role in future lunar exploration. This work also serves as a case study for how a large, complex organization can develop a strategic plan for deep space exploration that leverages its resources while meeting high-level, external science goals. By following the plan laid out in this paper, MIT can add to its expertise in lunar exploration, gather new scientific knowledge, and be part of the team that lands the first woman and the next man on the Moon.